Wednesday, November 24, 2010

Troubled by Decisions? Relax - it Doesn't Matter!

I've come to an interesting conclusion: the more difficult a decision is, the less important it is! Although this may seem counter-intuitive, I haven't found a fully convincing counter-example yet.

The reasoning is as follows: if a decision is easy to make, that means that one choice gives an obviously better result than the other choices. If a decision is difficult to make, it means that either the choices are relatively balanced in terms of positives and negatives, or that there is enough uncertainty so that the probabilities of good versus bad results are approximately balanced. Note that in the uncertain case, further exploration of the problem may result in a decision that is easier to make. When I say "easier," it doesn't mean less exploration, it refers to making a decision once all possible are realistically considered. Also note that difficult decisions are actually more likely to have a lasting and large impact on the rest of your life - it's just that all of the results are about equally as rewarding (or uncertain). I suspect one can describe a relation for a (binary) decision to a first-order approximation be something like:

D = I/(1 + |B1 - B2|)

(ignoring the constants, whose values I suppose will depend on the individual)
Where:
D: Difficulty of the decision.
I: Impact that the decision will have. (This can ultimately be defined in terms of B1 and B2)
B1, B2: Expected final benefit from decision 1 and decision 2 respectively.

So if you are ever in the situation of facing a difficult life-changing decision, and have explored all possibilities down to the uncertainties of the results, and still find the decision difficult, don't worry about it, go with your gut instinct, and make the best of it!

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